FREE ESSAY ON POPULATION

POPULATION

With each passing day, people age, babies are born, and people die. Yet, as
each day passes on, what happens to the population? Does a majority of the population
fall within a certain age bracket, and if so, what is that age bracket? Peter, is the
founder
and president of Global Business Network, an organization which studies business and
demographic trends. He presents an argument stating that a majority of the population
will be teenagers in the 21st century (49). Schwartz's argument is refuted by Wolfgang
Lutz, head of the Population Project of the International Institute of Applied Systems
Analysis, who feels that the population trends of the 21st century will lead to the
elderly
being the dominant age group (57). Schwartz feels that the young will be the majority,
and Lutz feels that the elderly would be a significant minority not a majority,
therefore
there will always be a workforce large enough to provide for the needs of the elderly.
According to Schwartz, people under 25 constitute more than 52% of the world
population (53). Most of these young people are located in Asia; the lowest numbers can
be found in North America and Europe. The early twenty-first century will bring a global
baby boom and the emergence of a two-billion-strong global teenager age-group
(49).Teenagers are currently targeted economically because of the purchasing power
they possess. A new generation of teenagers are hanging out in the shopping malls and
spending their parents hard earned money. The products targeted towards teenagers
include sneakers, clothes, makeup and electronics. But teenagers will expand their
power into politics and economics, which influence the future of the world.
The teenagers of the future will be more educated and informed than the
teenagers of the baby boom. They will be interconnected through the basic technology of
satellites, Walkman, video, television and the Internet. (50-51)The teenagers of
tomorrow will spend the monetary equivalent of a car on interactive computer
workstations with virtual reality capabilities; computer generated images will be part
of
everyday life (54). This in return will cause teenagers to become reliant on computers,
a
source of contact and information that is both social and factual. The power of the
electronic media will become a force that will shape views and opinions.
The information shared amongst the teenagers will lead to a feeling of power and
identity which in turn will lead to a reshaping of the world through their idealism and
energy. The ideas that shape their world will be either highly ambitious or cynical,
depending upon poverty, inflation and the media's view of things (52). To combat this,
there will be a war, whether it be a entrepreneurial/capitalist or a literal war. It has
been
proven that societies with a large number of males are more likely to start wars over
land, territory and ideology (52).
The fears over a global population with a majority of teenagers comes from
uncertainty over what will happen. There has been the thought that the teenagers of
tomorrow will be over ambitious, use cheap communication, have the mindset of a
computer programmer, travel to other places via the Internet, and provide uncertainty
for
the future because of demographics (55). The uncertainty of demographics is due to not
knowing the rate of immigration. The problem with immigration is those coming from
less developed countries to more developed countries will not know the new technology
and be disadvantaged. For example, a teenager from Mexico who goes to the United
States may not know how to type or surf the web and therefore will be at a disadvantage
in the job market. In the job market it is estimated that 85% of the labor force will be
comprised of young, culturally diverse nonwhite workers (56).
To distinguish trends in the workforce is also a difficult task. This is due to not
knowing what may happen and cause huge immigration waves due to world conditions.
Yet, the current trends in fertility, mortality and immigration are causes of the
elderly
becoming the dominant age group. Approximately one in three people are currently
under age 15 in contrast to one in ten being over 60. But those numbers are soon to
change due to the average age increasing. (58)
According to Lutz, the average age of the world's population will rise from 28 to
41 years old in 2100, with the increase of people over 60 years old increasing from
9.2% to 25.5% (57). The oldest populations are located in Western Europe. The reason
for this is that industrialized societies have better medicine and technology that
enables
the inhabitants to live longer.
The lifecycle has an effect on the society. The increase and decrease in a
population depends upon the rate of growth. The slower the population growth, the faster
the aging of the population (60). Countries such as those in Africa will have a problem
supporting their elderly because there aren't programs for them. Due to disease,
environmental problems, political instability and civil wars, taking care of the elderly
is
not a main concern in Africa.
However, the United States is a stable country and there is the problem of how to
take care of the elderly. Currently, the elderly receive social security and Medicare.
But
because the baby boomer population is aging, it is likely that by 2030 1 in 4 people
will
be older than 60 (63). Currently, the average age is 28, but by 2030 as well, the
average
will rise to between 31-35 years old (58). Lutz has also projected that China and
Western Europe will be the two regions most impacted by the growing elderly population
(57). 
The rate of population growth is dependent on fertility. If, the world follows a
policy of low fertility, the population pyramid will shrink causing, the population to
be
mainly elderly. If the population of a country is mainly elderly, what will happen? This
leaves a country open for attacks and war from countries with higher youth populations.
Also, who will replace the elderly when they pass on? The base of the age pyramid will
narrow and thus cause harm in the long run. The only way to avoid aging of a population
is to have a higher fertility rate. Yet this contradicts the need for a smaller
population and
less population growth
. 
There is no solution to the question of Is society better off with a larger elderly or
teenage population? The future can not be predicted no matter what technique is used.
Something will always occur that alters the path to the future. Technology will help to
keep the elderly population healthy and live longer lives. But on the same hand, a war
or
famine can destroy populations all together whether young or old. The population shifts
and growth rates are really dependent on what economic level the country is. Developed
nations will have older population due to technology. The less developed countries will
have higher teenager populations due to the high birth rates. Overall, the elderly and
young populations will balance causing both to co-exist and not have a dominant
population group. 
Works Cited
Bender, David and Bruno Leone. 21st Century Earth. San Diego: Greenhaven Press, 1996.